Prof. Maswana presented at the 2018 Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (held in Philadelphia, PA on January 5-7, 2018, USA,
https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/)
on the topic “Growth Effects of Sino–African Bilateral Trade on African Economies”. In the paper,
the effect of China-Africa’s bilateral trade intensity and concentration --which are alternatively incorporated as threshold variables in an endogenous growth model
-- on economic growth of African countries is examined. Based on a panel threshold regression, findings suggest a heterogeneous trade-growth nexus with the effect of
bilateral trade intensity on Africa’s economic growth being higher in countries whose trade intensity with China is higher compared to those with lower-intensity.
However, the growth-effects of trade concentration for countries have been found to partially undetermined. Taken together,
these results contrast with some earlier literature relying on linear-based approaches which mask the parameter heterogeneity and may sometimes lead to inappropriate policy recommendations.
Drawn implications imply four categories of trade policies depending on the position of countries in a trade intensity-concentration matrix.
